The activity multiplier has a bigger effect on your calorie number than almost any other input — and it's the one people get wrong most often. Pick one level too high and your TDEE can be inflated by 300–500 calories, which quietly erases a deficit you thought you had.
Your TDEE is your BMR multiplied by an activity factor, from 1.2 (sedentary) up to 1.9 (very active). The gap between "lightly active" (1.375) and "moderately active" (1.55) on a 1,700-calorie BMR is roughly 300 calories a day. Choose the higher one when the lower is true, and the deficit you planned shrinks or disappears. This is the most common reason a calorie target "doesn't work."
The trap is counting your gym time while ignoring the other 23 hours. Most people who sit at a desk are sedentary to lightly active, even if they train a few times a week, because a single workout is a small slice of total daily energy. Use these as honest anchors:
When you're between two levels, pick the lower one. It's better to underestimate, lose a little faster than expected, and then add calories back, than to overestimate and spend weeks wondering why nothing is moving. You can always recalibrate against reality — that's exactly what the progress tracker does: it works out your real maintenance from how your weight actually changes, so a wrong multiplier gets corrected by data instead of guesswork.
If you want a sharper read than the labels, look at daily steps. A largely sedentary day is often under 5,000 steps regardless of a workout; genuinely active days run well above that. Activity trackers over-credit exercise calories, so treat their TDEE number as a starting estimate, not truth — then confirm against your weight trend over a few weeks.
Usually lightly active (1.375), not moderate. A few workouts are a small fraction of total daily energy; the 23 sedentary hours dominate.
No. Overestimating activity is the most common reason a deficit fails. When between two levels, choose the lower one and adjust up later if weight drops too fast.
They tend to overestimate exercise calories. Use them as a rough guide, then confirm your real maintenance against your weight trend over 2–3 weeks.